Betting Lines
| Spread | BCU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | BCU -154 ALST +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BCU +6 | 174 | Won |
| Massey | BCU -1.8 (+4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.5 (+36.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BCU -0.8 (+5.2) | 141.4 (+32.6) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BCU -1.5 (+4.5) | 138.4 (+35.6) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BCU -1.5 (+4.5) | 135.2 (+38.8) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BCU -0.9 (+5.1) | 135.5 (+38.5) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | BCU 82 – 71 ALST |
| Jan 31, 2026 | BCU 69 – 54 ALST |
| Feb 25, 2025 | BCU 70 – 68 ALST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | BCU 67 – 64 ALST |
| Feb 3, 2024 | BCU 79 – 68 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BCU | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-2 | 7-5 |
| Away | 5-11 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -10.0 (#323) | -8.4 (#305) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.24 (#293) | -1.27 (#297) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.58 (#296) | -1.70 (#304) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#316) | 0.463 (#257) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BCU | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 36.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 27.4% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 13.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 41.1% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 66.2% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.5% | 32.5% |
Game Analysis
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