Betting Lines
| Spread | BCU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | BCU -218 ALST +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BCU +11 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | BCU -5.7 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.4 (+2.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BCU -4.2 (+6.8) | 145.2 (+7.8) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BCU -3.9 (+7.1) | 146.1 (+6.9) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BCU -4.5 (+6.5) | 142.5 (+10.5) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BCU -4.9 (+6.1) | 143.1 (+9.9) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | BCU 69 – 54 ALST |
| Feb 25, 2025 | BCU 70 – 68 ALST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | BCU 67 – 64 ALST |
| Feb 27, 2024 | BCU 90 – 84 ALST |
| Feb 3, 2024 | BCU 79 – 68 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BCU | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-1 | 5-4 |
| Away | 7-11 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.5 | 77.6 |
| Massey | -7.3 (#284) | -10.1 (#309) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.61 (#224) | -1.68 (#316) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.77 (#226) | -2.07 (#310) |
| RPI | 0.493 (#200) | 0.423 (#321) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BCU | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.1% | 30.8% |
Game Analysis
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