Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | ALST -175 BCU +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BCU +2 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | ALST -1.9 (-3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.8 (-5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -1.3 (-3.3) | 143.9 (-5.9) | 55% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -1.1 (-3.1) | 143.5 (-5.5) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -1.5 (-3.5) | 142.0 (-4.0) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -1.2 (-3.2) | 144.2 (-6.2) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | BCU 82 – 71 ALST |
| Jan 31, 2026 | BCU 69 – 54 ALST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | BCU 67 – 64 ALST |
| Feb 27, 2024 | BCU 90 – 84 ALST |
| Feb 3, 2024 | BCU 79 – 68 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-16 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 13-5 |
| Home | 8-3 | 8-2 |
| Away | 6-10 | 7-12 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -8.3 (#302) | -7.1 (#277) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.21 (#283) | -1.00 (#263) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.01 (#310) | -1.31 (#269) |
| RPI | 0.462 (#260) | 0.467 (#246) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.9% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 13.2% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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