Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | SDST -1200 ORU +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +23 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | SDST -13.2 (+9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.6 (+17.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -12.0 (+11.0) | 147.6 (+19.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -11.8 (+11.2) | 146.6 (+20.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -10.6 (+12.4) | 145.6 (+21.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -11.1 (+11.9) | 145.2 (+21.8) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | SDST 87 – 69 ORU |
| Feb 28, 2025 | SDST 77 – 69 ORU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | SDST 84 – 70 ORU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | SDST 79 – 63 ORU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | SDST 83 – 72 ORU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDST | ORU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 10-23 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 4-12 |
| Home | 9-4 | 7-8 |
| Away | 4-10 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.4 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 79.7 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#172) | -10.3 (#312) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.83 (#241) | -2.27 (#340) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.81 (#225) | -2.78 (#337) |
| RPI | 0.464 (#241) | 0.407 (#332) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDST | ORU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 65.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 29.3% |
Game Analysis
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