Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | ORU +195 SDST -238 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +18 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | SDST -6.4 (-11.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.6 (+8.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -5.5 (-12.5) | 146.1 (+9.9) | 33% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -7.7 (-10.3) | 145.8 (+10.2) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -5.2 (-12.8) | 143.4 (+12.6) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -5.2 (-12.8) | 144.7 (+11.3) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | SDST 95 – 72 ORU |
| Feb 28, 2025 | SDST 77 – 69 ORU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | SDST 84 – 70 ORU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | SDST 79 – 63 ORU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | SDST 83 – 72 ORU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORU | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-23 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 4-12 | 7-9 |
| Home | 7-8 | 9-4 |
| Away | 1-13 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.7 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -11.0 (#320) | -1.6 (#189) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.31 (#342) | -1.16 (#275) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.75 (#335) | -1.05 (#242) |
| RPI | 0.392 (#353) | 0.437 (#302) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORU | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.3% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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