Betting Lines
| Spread | UML -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | UML -218 ME +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UML win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UML +14 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | UML -4.1 (+9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.0 (+35.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UML -2.1 (+11.9) | 127.8 (+40.2) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UML -2.9 (+11.1) | 129.7 (+38.3) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UML -2.1 (+11.9) | 129.7 (+38.3) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UML -2.7 (+11.3) | 129.3 (+38.7) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | UML 67 – 56 ME |
| Mar 8, 2025 | ME 72 – 64 UML |
| Mar 4, 2025 | ME 71 – 70 UML |
| Jan 23, 2025 | ME 86 – 85 UML |
| Mar 5, 2024 | ME 71 – 65 UML |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UML | ME |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 6-10 |
| Home | 10-4 | 4-8 |
| Away | 5-14 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 61.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 68.5 |
| Massey | -11.6 (#326) | -12.6 (#339) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.07 (#332) | -2.68 (#351) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.58 (#330) | -3.38 (#349) |
| RPI | 0.431 (#295) | 0.392 (#344) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UML | ME |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 28.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 64.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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