Betting Lines
| Spread | ME -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | ME -150 UML +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ME win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ME +1 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | ME -5.0 (-4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.0 (-7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ME -4.2 (-3.2) | 147.6 (-6.6) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ME -3.0 (-2.0) | 145.2 (-4.2) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ME -4.1 (-3.1) | 146.2 (-5.2) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ME -3.7 (-2.7) | 147.7 (-6.7) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | UML 67 – 56 ME |
| Jan 31, 2026 | UML 91 – 77 ME |
| Mar 8, 2025 | ME 72 – 64 UML |
| Jan 23, 2025 | ME 86 – 85 UML |
| Mar 5, 2024 | ME 71 – 65 UML |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ME | UML |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 6-10 |
| Home | 10-3 | 14-4 |
| Away | 8-11 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 76.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#216) | -4.8 (#245) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.69 (#233) | -0.78 (#241) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.77 (#228) | -0.62 (#214) |
| RPI | 0.484 (#209) | 0.487 (#203) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ME | UML |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 29.4 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 22.6% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 17.3% |
Game Analysis
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