Betting Lines
| Spread | UML -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | ME -105 UML -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ME win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UML +11 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | ME -0.8 (-11.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.5 (-14.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UML -1.3 (-9.7) | 134.1 (-11.1) | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UML -1.3 (-9.7) | 131.7 (-8.7) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UML -0.6 (-10.4) | 132.1 (-9.1) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UML -0.4 (-10.6) | 133.6 (-10.6) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | UML 91 – 77 ME |
| Mar 8, 2025 | ME 72 – 64 UML |
| Mar 4, 2025 | ME 71 – 70 UML |
| Jan 23, 2025 | ME 86 – 85 UML |
| Mar 5, 2024 | ME 71 – 65 UML |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ME | UML |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 9-7 |
| Home | 4-8 | 10-4 |
| Away | 4-14 | 5-14 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.2 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 77.4 |
| Massey | -13.1 (#337) | -10.9 (#318) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.56 (#350) | -1.86 (#326) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.19 (#350) | -2.27 (#323) |
| RPI | 0.417 (#337) | 0.454 (#268) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ME | UML |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 27.5 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 6.3 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 19.8% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 65.5% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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