Betting Lines
| Spread | UML -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | UML -210 ME +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UML win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ME +1 | 171 | Lost |
| Massey | UML -1.6 (-2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.3 (+22.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UML -0.5 (-1.5) | 143.6 (+27.4) | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UML -1.5 (-2.5) | 142.7 (+28.3) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UML -0.6 (-1.6) | 143.0 (+28.0) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UML -0.7 (-1.7) | 143.4 (+27.6) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | UML 67 – 56 ME |
| Jan 31, 2026 | UML 91 – 77 ME |
| Mar 8, 2025 | ME 72 – 64 UML |
| Mar 4, 2025 | ME 71 – 70 UML |
| Mar 5, 2024 | ME 71 – 65 UML |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UML | ME |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 10-6 |
| Home | 14-4 | 10-3 |
| Away | 3-11 | 8-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.1 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 67.2 |
| Massey | -3.5 (#220) | -1.7 (#191) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#157) | -0.39 (#210) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#149) | -0.38 (#197) |
| RPI | 0.515 (#150) | 0.486 (#201) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UML | ME |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 28.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 24.2% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 31.1% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 22.7% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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