Betting Lines
| Spread | UML -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | ME +155 UML -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ME win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ME +6 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | UML -1.8 (+7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.8 (-1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UML -1.4 (+7.4) | 140.7 (-4.7) | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UML -3.1 (+9.1) | 137.8 (-1.8) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UML -1.9 (+7.9) | 136.9 (-0.9) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UML -1.7 (+7.7) | 138.6 (-2.6) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | UML 67 – 56 ME |
| Jan 31, 2026 | UML 91 – 77 ME |
| Mar 8, 2025 | ME 72 – 64 UML |
| Mar 4, 2025 | ME 71 – 70 UML |
| Jan 23, 2025 | ME 86 – 85 UML |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ME | UML |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 22-10 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 11-5 |
| Home | 8-4 | 12-3 |
| Away | 5-13 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.2 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -3.1 (#220) | 2.0 (#137) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.64 (#238) | 0.51 (#128) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.63 (#227) | 0.52 (#136) |
| RPI | 0.485 (#208) | 0.530 (#121) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ME | UML |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 22.7% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 29.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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