Betting Lines
| Spread | ME -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | ME -125 UML +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ME win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ME +8 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | ME -4.8 (+3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.3 (-11.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ME -4.0 (+4.0) | 146.1 (-10.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ME -3.0 (+5.0) | 143.5 (-7.5) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ME -3.7 (+4.3) | 145.0 (-9.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ME -3.1 (+4.9) | 145.9 (-9.9) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | UML 67 – 56 ME |
| Jan 31, 2026 | UML 91 – 77 ME |
| Mar 4, 2025 | ME 71 – 70 UML |
| Jan 23, 2025 | ME 86 – 85 UML |
| Mar 5, 2024 | ME 71 – 65 UML |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ME | UML |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 6-10 |
| Home | 10-3 | 14-4 |
| Away | 8-11 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 76.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#219) | -4.8 (#244) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#229) | -0.86 (#248) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.77 (#229) | -0.67 (#218) |
| RPI | 0.486 (#209) | 0.482 (#219) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ME | UML |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 48.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 29.0 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 22.1% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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