Oh workers can you stand it, oh tell me how you can? Will you be a lousy scab or will you be a man? "Which Side Are You On?" - Pete Seeger
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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36–17 on winners spread MAE 9.7 53 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Colorado @ Iowa State +16.4 153.0 89% 67–97 ✓
Radford @ Charleston Southern +4.8 157.4 69% 84–75 ✗
Longwood @ South Carolina Upstate +0.5 144.1 54% 60–65 ✓
New Haven @ Mercyhurst +3.2 122.8 63% 51–70 ✓
Le Moyne @ Long Island University +4.5 141.5 70% 61–83 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Stonehill +1.1 130.1 57% 57–58 ✓
UMBC @ Vermont +4.6 139.1 69% 55–64 ✓
Stony Brook @ Campbell +2.5 148.6 64% 81–69 ✗
William & Mary @ Elon +0.2 157.1 50% 76–79 ✓
Hampton @ Drexel +4.2 129.5 68% 51–58 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Monmouth +5.9 141.2 76% 81–83 ✓
Charleston @ Hofstra +5.1 147.3 71% 66–64 ✗
VMI @ The Citadel +3.6 141.0 66% 56–80 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Mercer +12.4 154.7 88% 77–95 ✓
Western Carolina @ East Tennessee State +11.0 145.4 87% 90–88 ✗
James Madison @ Troy +10.9 152.8 85% 73–64 ✗
Stetson @ North Florida +0.4 158.3 52% 84–77 ✗
North Alabama @ Florida Gulf Coast +9.8 150.0 84% 64–72 ✓
Lipscomb @ Jacksonville -3.7 140.9 31% 65–70 ✗
Liberty @ Middle Tennessee +0.1 138.5 48% 81–65 ✗
Central Connecticut @ Wagner -0.4 140.4 45% 62–55 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Morehead State +0.2 132.2 51% 65–67 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Memphis +0.9 145.2 54% 65–92 ✓
Penn State @ Northwestern +8.9 145.8 81% 73–94 ✓
Oral Roberts @ South Dakota +4.7 152.1 72% 69–77 ✓
North Dakota @ St. Thomas-Minnesota +11.2 150.1 87% 81–80 ✗
Georgia State @ Louisiana -3.2 125.3 37% 72–82 ✗
Coastal Carolina @ South Alabama +3.2 140.1 65% 48–53 ✓
App State @ Southern Miss +0.1 132.4 49% 70–63 ✗
Eastern Washington @ Northern Arizona -2.3 143.2 40% 86–92 ✗
Southern Utah @ UT Arlington +10.5 139.6 86% 61–80 ✓
Utah Valley @ Tarleton State -1.8 153.3 43% 83–55 ✓
Utah Tech @ Abilene Christian -0.1 140.0 53% 76–70 ✓
Lindenwood @ Southern Indiana -2.7 141.2 34% 73–60 ✓
UT Martin @ Eastern Illinois -4.7 122.9 30% 76–68 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Western Illinois -7.9 135.4 22% 78–74 ✓
Little Rock @ Tennessee State +6.6 147.7 76% 63–70 ✓
Washington @ Illinois +12.7 148.8 88% 66–75 ✓
Presbyterian @ High Point +15.0 148.6 88% 81–84 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Towson -0.1 127.6 48% 82–73 ✓
Idaho @ Northern Colorado +1.6 148.4 58% 83–91 ✓
Cal Poly @ Cal State Bakersfield +1.4 156.9 56% 104–79 ✗
Long Beach State @ UC Riverside +0.7 143.6 52% 61–71 ✓
UC Davis @ Cal State Northridge +0.2 153.9 50% 78–94 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ UC San Diego +5.7 145.2 71% 62–48 ✗
Montana State @ Sacramento State -5.9 148.6 26% 80–83 ✗
Montana @ Portland State +3.3 140.6 69% 64–60 ✗
Hawai'i @ UC Irvine -1.1 133.2 48% 76–87 ✗
Georgia Southern @ UL Monroe -9.1 154.7 18% 79–76 ✓
Princeton @ Cornell +4.0 154.4 68% 64–87 ✓
Kent State @ Akron +12.3 163.9 86% 52–69 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Youngstown State +9.2 156.6 82% 76–85 ✓
Siena @ Niagara -10.5 124.6 16% 82–79 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.