Betting Lines
| Spread | GAST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | UL +100 GAST -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +10 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | GAST -1.3 (+11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.3 (+28.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GAST -3.2 (+13.2) | 125.3 (+28.7) | 37% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GAST -2.5 (+12.5) | 129.9 (+24.1) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GAST -1.4 (+11.4) | 129.9 (+24.1) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GAST -1.9 (+11.9) | 126.9 (+27.1) | 37% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | UL 84 – 75 GAST |
| Jan 5, 2025 | GAST 94 – 70 UL |
| Feb 8, 2024 | GAST 78 – 69 UL |
| Jan 8, 2023 | UL 78 – 70 GAST |
| Mar 8, 2022 | GAST 80 – 71 UL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 7-8 | 7-7 |
| Away | 3-13 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.7 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 75.4 |
| Massey | -11.9 (#331) | -7.4 (#279) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.04 (#331) | -0.83 (#239) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.71 (#335) | -1.18 (#248) |
| RPI | 0.425 (#312) | 0.454 (#255) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.5% | 37.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 29.9 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 44.8% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 17.7% | 28.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.6% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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