Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | UL -400 GAST +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GAST +9 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | UL -9.5 (-18.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.1 (-3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UL -9.5 (-18.5) | 149.0 (-2.0) | 83% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UL -11.5 (-20.5) | 146.1 (+0.9) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UL -10.6 (-19.6) | 145.5 (+1.5) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UL -9.6 (-18.6) | 145.9 (+1.1) | 84% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | UL 84 – 75 GAST |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UL 82 – 72 GAST |
| Jan 5, 2025 | GAST 94 – 70 UL |
| Jan 8, 2023 | UL 78 – 70 GAST |
| Mar 8, 2022 | GAST 80 – 71 UL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-3 | 9-5 |
| Away | 5-9 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 76.4 |
| Massey | 2.9 (#123) | -3.1 (#222) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.56 (#125) | -1.06 (#280) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.72 (#126) | -1.17 (#270) |
| RPI | 0.548 (#101) | 0.439 (#286) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 13.7% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.8% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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