Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | UL -350 GAST +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +8 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | UL -11.9 (-3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.3 (+9.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UL -8.7 (-0.7) | 141.4 (+6.6) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UL -8.0 (-0.0) | 138.0 (+10.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UL -8.9 (-0.9) | 140.3 (+7.7) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UL -8.9 (-0.9) | 140.2 (+7.8) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | UL 84 – 75 GAST |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UL 82 – 72 GAST |
| Jan 5, 2025 | GAST 94 – 70 UL |
| Feb 8, 2024 | GAST 78 – 69 UL |
| Mar 8, 2022 | GAST 80 – 71 UL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 3-15 |
| Home | 14-0 | 10-9 |
| Away | 7-7 | 0-11 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 65.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 70.9 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#125) | -4.7 (#253) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.15 (#79) | -0.97 (#274) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.68 (#75) | -1.01 (#255) |
| RPI | 0.581 (#52) | 0.427 (#301) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 26.1% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 43.4% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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