Betting Lines
| Spread | GAST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | UL +100 GAST -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +9 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | GAST -1.1 (+10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.5 (+31.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GAST -1.0 (+10.0) | 132.0 (+27.0) | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GAST -0.7 (+9.7) | 131.9 (+27.1) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GAST -1.0 (+10.0) | 129.9 (+29.1) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GAST -1.2 (+10.2) | 130.2 (+28.8) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | UL 82 – 72 GAST |
| Jan 5, 2025 | GAST 94 – 70 UL |
| Feb 8, 2024 | GAST 78 – 69 UL |
| Jan 8, 2023 | UL 78 – 70 GAST |
| Mar 8, 2022 | GAST 80 – 71 UL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 7-8 | 7-7 |
| Away | 3-13 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.7 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 75.4 |
| Massey | -10.3 (#313) | -9.2 (#302) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.33 (#287) | -1.44 (#296) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.77 (#290) | -1.77 (#289) |
| RPI | 0.441 (#299) | 0.423 (#328) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 37.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 30.3 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 43.9% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 29.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.2% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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