Georgia State
Panthers
80
–
71
FINAL
Neutral
Conference
Hercules Tires Sun Belt
Louisiana
Ragin' Cajuns
Betting Lines
| Spread | GAST -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GAST +9 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | GAST -0.6 (+8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.4 (+12.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GAST -0.8 (+8.2) | 137.5 (+13.5) | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GAST -1.4 (+7.6) | 137.6 (+13.4) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GAST -1.9 (+7.1) | 137.2 (+13.8) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GAST -0.7 (+8.3) | 136.2 (+14.8) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | UL 84 – 75 GAST |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UL 82 – 72 GAST |
| Jan 5, 2025 | GAST 94 – 70 UL |
| Feb 8, 2024 | GAST 78 – 69 UL |
| Jan 8, 2023 | UL 78 – 70 GAST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GAST | UL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-11 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 8-9 |
| Home | 8-4 | 7-6 |
| Away | 6-6 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 70.1 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#171) | -0.8 (#183) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#140) | -0.03 (#178) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#140) | 0.02 (#179) |
| RPI | 0.506 (#166) | 0.494 (#192) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GAST | UL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.9% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.8% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.0% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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