Betting Lines
| Spread | GAST -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | GAST +100 UL -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GAST +24 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | GAST -4.4 (+19.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.4 (+16.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GAST -1.9 (+22.1) | 139.9 (+24.1) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GAST -2.2 (+21.8) | 139.4 (+24.6) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GAST -1.4 (+22.6) | 140.2 (+23.8) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GAST -1.4 (+22.6) | 139.8 (+24.2) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | UL 84 – 75 GAST |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UL 82 – 72 GAST |
| Feb 8, 2024 | GAST 78 – 69 UL |
| Jan 8, 2023 | UL 78 – 70 GAST |
| Mar 8, 2022 | GAST 80 – 71 UL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GAST | UL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-10 |
| Home | 9-6 | 5-12 |
| Away | 3-11 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 64.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.7 | 73.3 |
| Massey | -9.9 (#324) | -10.1 (#326) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.91 (#322) | -1.72 (#312) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.52 (#321) | -2.14 (#304) |
| RPI | 0.437 (#291) | 0.443 (#275) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GAST | UL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 29.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.9% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.5% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 64.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 32.0% |
Game Analysis
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