Betting Lines
| Spread | LIP -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | JAX +160 LIP -192 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JAX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JAX +5 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | LIP -5.4 (+10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.2 (-10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIP -4.9 (+9.9) | 142.4 (-7.4) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIP -3.7 (+8.7) | 140.9 (-5.9) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LIP -3.7 (+8.7) | 142.5 (-7.5) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIP -4.6 (+9.6) | 140.6 (-5.6) | 29% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 1, 2026 | LIP 76 – 57 JAX |
| Jan 3, 2025 | LIP 70 – 65 JAX |
| Feb 3, 2024 | LIP 84 – 82 JAX |
| Feb 19, 2023 | LIP 62 – 59 JAX |
| Jan 7, 2023 | JAX 51 – 44 LIP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JAX | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 12-6 |
| Home | 8-4 | 13-1 |
| Away | 3-14 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 77.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 77.0 |
| Massey | -8.3 (#291) | 0.2 (#159) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.23 (#281) | 0.35 (#130) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.70 (#284) | 0.36 (#136) |
| RPI | 0.459 (#247) | 0.543 (#92) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JAX | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.5% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.7% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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