Betting Lines
| Spread | LIP -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | LIP -1050 JAX +675 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIP +19 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | LIP -17.0 (+2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.4 (-15.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIP -12.9 (+6.1) | 145.2 (-12.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIP -13.7 (+5.3) | 145.3 (-12.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIP -12.4 (+6.6) | 144.8 (-11.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIP -12.9 (+6.1) | 147.5 (-14.5) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | JAX 70 – 65 LIP |
| Jan 3, 2025 | LIP 70 – 65 JAX |
| Feb 3, 2024 | LIP 84 – 82 JAX |
| Feb 19, 2023 | LIP 62 – 59 JAX |
| Jan 7, 2023 | JAX 51 – 44 LIP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIP | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 7-11 |
| Home | 13-1 | 8-4 |
| Away | 6-11 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.6 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#140) | -11.1 (#323) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.35 (#144) | -1.16 (#266) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.56 (#137) | -2.00 (#287) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#101) | 0.466 (#240) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIP | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 24.8% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 57.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 31.5% |
Game Analysis
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