Betting Lines
| Spread | LIP -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | LIP -900 JAX +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIP +2 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | LIP -12.5 (-10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.8 (+13.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIP -10.2 (-8.2) | 149.3 (+16.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIP -9.5 (-7.5) | 146.9 (+19.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIP -9.0 (-7.0) | 149.2 (+16.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIP -9.1 (-7.1) | 149.6 (+16.4) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | JAX 70 – 65 LIP |
| Jan 1, 2026 | LIP 76 – 57 JAX |
| Jan 3, 2025 | LIP 70 – 65 JAX |
| Feb 19, 2023 | LIP 62 – 59 JAX |
| Jan 7, 2023 | JAX 51 – 44 LIP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIP | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 5-11 |
| Home | 12-2 | 11-3 |
| Away | 6-8 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.3 | 74.6 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#157) | -8.8 (#307) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.09 (#163) | -0.88 (#262) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.07 (#175) | -1.17 (#268) |
| RPI | 0.497 (#178) | 0.453 (#262) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIP | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 23.0% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.3% | 28.6% |
Game Analysis
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