Betting Lines
| Spread | LIP -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | JAX +190 LIP -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JAX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIP +5 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | LIP -4.0 (-1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.0 (-2.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIP -6.4 (+1.4) | 140.5 (-5.5) | 26% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIP -4.1 (-0.9) | 140.3 (-5.3) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIP -3.2 (-1.8) | 138.0 (-3.0) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIP -6.2 (+1.2) | 138.3 (-3.3) | 24% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | JAX 70 – 65 LIP |
| Jan 1, 2026 | LIP 76 – 57 JAX |
| Feb 3, 2024 | LIP 84 – 82 JAX |
| Feb 19, 2023 | LIP 62 – 59 JAX |
| Jan 7, 2023 | JAX 51 – 44 LIP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JAX | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 14-4 |
| Home | 11-3 | 15-3 |
| Away | 7-9 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 68.2 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#197) | 6.2 (#90) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#136) | 0.43 (#132) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.93 (#112) | 1.13 (#102) |
| RPI | 0.558 (#82) | 0.525 (#123) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JAX | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 22.7% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 23.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 17.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 12.4% |
Game Analysis
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