Betting Lines
| Spread | LIP -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | LIP -175 JAX +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIP +3 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | LIP -6.6 (-3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.2 (-9.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIP -2.7 (+0.3) | 131.5 (-10.5) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIP -4.2 (-1.2) | 132.4 (-11.4) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIP -4.5 (-1.5) | 133.1 (-12.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIP -4.8 (-1.8) | 133.4 (-12.4) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | JAX 70 – 65 LIP |
| Jan 1, 2026 | LIP 76 – 57 JAX |
| Jan 3, 2025 | LIP 70 – 65 JAX |
| Feb 3, 2024 | LIP 84 – 82 JAX |
| Jan 7, 2023 | JAX 51 – 44 LIP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIP | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 13-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 6-12 |
| Home | 13-2 | 7-6 |
| Away | 7-11 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 61.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 64.7 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#192) | -3.9 (#236) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#190) | -0.15 (#189) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#186) | -0.22 (#190) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#196) | 0.499 (#184) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIP | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 23.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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