Betting Lines
| Spread | JAX -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | JAX -163 LIP +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JAX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JAX +7 | 95 | Won |
| Massey | JAX -5.9 (+1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.2 (-34.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JAX -5.0 (+2.0) | 127.9 (-32.9) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JAX -4.5 (+2.5) | 131.8 (-36.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JAX -4.8 (+2.2) | 132.7 (-37.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JAX -4.9 (+2.1) | 129.0 (-34.0) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | JAX 70 – 65 LIP |
| Jan 1, 2026 | LIP 76 – 57 JAX |
| Jan 3, 2025 | LIP 70 – 65 JAX |
| Feb 3, 2024 | LIP 84 – 82 JAX |
| Feb 19, 2023 | LIP 62 – 59 JAX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JAX | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-16 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 11-7 |
| Home | 7-6 | 13-2 |
| Away | 6-10 | 7-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.0 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.7 | 72.6 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#189) | -2.3 (#212) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#113) | -0.49 (#227) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.92 (#107) | -0.64 (#219) |
| RPI | 0.545 (#99) | 0.466 (#235) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JAX | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 16.5% | 16.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.2% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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