Betting Lines
| Spread | SEMO -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | WIU +425 SEMO -575 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SEMO +4 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | SEMO -8.4 (+4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.3 (+7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SEMO -7.9 (+3.9) | 135.4 (+16.6) | 22% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SEMO -8.1 (+4.1) | 136.0 (+16.0) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SEMO -7.8 (+3.8) | 137.8 (+14.2) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SEMO -7.5 (+3.5) | 134.8 (+17.2) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | SEMO 73 – 50 WIU |
| Feb 21, 2025 | SEMO 87 – 66 WIU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | SEMO 72 – 51 WIU |
| Feb 3, 2024 | WIU 76 – 55 SEMO |
| Jan 5, 2024 | WIU 68 – 61 SEMO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIU | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-26 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 1-19 | 14-6 |
| Home | 4-11 | 10-5 |
| Away | 1-15 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.2 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.5 | 72.3 |
| Massey | -16.6 (#355) | -5.1 (#247) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.48 (#359) | -0.96 (#252) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.56 (#358) | -1.37 (#256) |
| RPI | 0.356 (#360) | 0.460 (#244) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIU | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.2% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 28.7% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.61 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.5% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 37.6% |
Game Analysis
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