Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | USM +105 APP -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +7 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | USM -1.0 (-8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.0 (-2.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USM -0.3 (-7.3) | 134.3 (-1.3) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -0.1 (-7.1) | 132.4 (+0.6) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APP -0.0 (-7.0) | 133.4 (-0.4) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -0.1 (-6.9) | 132.0 (+1.0) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | USM 86 – 73 APP |
| Feb 5, 2025 | APP 60 – 58 USM |
| Dec 31, 2022 | USM 76 – 70 APP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USM | APP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-3 | 11-4 |
| Away | 4-11 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 67.4 |
| Massey | -5.4 (#249) | -3.3 (#217) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#227) | -0.39 (#208) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.94 (#232) | -0.73 (#219) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#200) | 0.473 (#224) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USM | APP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 27.2% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 30.5% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.7% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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