Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | APP -425 USM +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +2 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | APP -10.1 (-8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.5 (-16.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -9.1 (-7.1) | 133.0 (-15.0) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -10.4 (-8.4) | 132.1 (-14.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -7.9 (-5.9) | 131.6 (-13.6) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APP -8.5 (-6.5) | 133.2 (-15.2) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | USM 86 – 73 APP |
| Jan 30, 2026 | APP 70 – 63 USM |
| Dec 31, 2022 | USM 76 – 70 APP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-4 | 9-6 |
| Away | 5-8 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.8 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.6 | 76.5 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#161) | -6.7 (#271) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.06 (#165) | -0.88 (#250) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.21 (#154) | -1.26 (#262) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#139) | 0.454 (#259) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.4% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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