Betting Lines
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | USM -250 APP +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +6 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | USM -17.2 (-11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.6 (+14.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -16.1 (-10.1) | 138.7 (+7.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USM -10.9 (-4.9) | 138.8 (+7.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -14.9 (-8.9) | 138.1 (+7.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USM -15.9 (-9.9) | 137.9 (+8.1) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | USM 86 – 73 APP |
| Jan 30, 2026 | APP 70 – 63 USM |
| Feb 5, 2025 | APP 60 – 58 USM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USM | APP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 9-9 |
| Home | 15-0 | 10-7 |
| Away | 8-7 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.5 | 66.1 |
| Massey | 9.6 (#51) | -2.9 (#225) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.15 (#33) | -1.03 (#273) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.80 (#34) | -1.38 (#274) |
| RPI | 0.588 (#49) | 0.455 (#257) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USM | APP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 20.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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