Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | APP -205 USM +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +13 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | APP -2.3 (-15.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.8 (+25.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -3.7 (-16.7) | 137.1 (+21.9) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -2.5 (-15.5) | 134.0 (+25.0) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | APP -2.5 (-15.5) | 134.9 (+24.1) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -1.4 (-14.4) | 136.2 (+22.8) | 58% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | APP 70 – 63 USM |
| Feb 5, 2025 | APP 60 – 58 USM |
| Dec 31, 2022 | USM 76 – 70 APP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-4 | 10-3 |
| Away | 7-7 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#189) | -3.9 (#227) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#172) | -0.19 (#181) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#175) | -0.43 (#201) |
| RPI | 0.506 (#177) | 0.506 (#174) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 29.4% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 32.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.0% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 29.8% |
Game Analysis
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