Betting Lines
| Spread | NU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | NU -355 PSU +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NU +21 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | NU -9.7 (+11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.8 (+14.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NU -9.3 (+11.7) | 147.2 (+19.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NU -8.4 (+12.6) | 143.1 (+23.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NU -8.9 (+12.1) | 145.8 (+21.2) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NU -8.9 (+12.1) | 145.7 (+21.3) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2026 | NU 76 – 66 PSU |
| Jan 3, 2025 | PSU 84 – 80 NU |
| Feb 11, 2024 | NU 68 – 63 PSU |
| Jan 10, 2024 | NU 76 – 72 PSU |
| Mar 10, 2023 | PSU 67 – 65 NU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NU | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-19 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 3-17 |
| Home | 9-8 | 9-8 |
| Away | 3-8 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 79.3 |
| Massey | 9.5 (#64) | 3.0 (#124) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.77 (#101) | 0.12 (#158) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.16 (#95) | 0.08 (#159) |
| RPI | 0.527 (#122) | 0.507 (#154) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NU | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 2.12 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 12.5% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 28.6% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 57.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 66.5% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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