Betting Lines
| Spread | NU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | NU -238 PSU +195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NU +10 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | NU -7.3 (+2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.5 (-6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NU -6.5 (+3.5) | 141.1 (+0.9) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NU -5.8 (+4.2) | 138.5 (+3.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NU -6.4 (+3.6) | 140.6 (+1.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NU -6.9 (+3.1) | 140.8 (+1.2) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | NU 94 – 73 PSU |
| Jan 3, 2025 | PSU 84 – 80 NU |
| Feb 11, 2024 | NU 68 – 63 PSU |
| Jan 10, 2024 | NU 76 – 72 PSU |
| Mar 10, 2023 | PSU 67 – 65 NU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NU | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-19 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 3-17 |
| Home | 9-8 | 9-8 |
| Away | 3-8 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 79.3 |
| Massey | 9.3 (#65) | 1.9 (#136) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.97 (#89) | 0.43 (#123) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.30 (#89) | 0.29 (#142) |
| RPI | 0.514 (#142) | 0.495 (#198) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NU | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 30.9 | 29.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.98 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 13.1% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 58.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 65.3% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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