Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | ETSU -535 WCU +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WCU +2 | 178 | Lost |
| Massey | ETSU -13.6 (-15.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.2 (+27.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -11.6 (-13.6) | 144.6 (+33.4) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -11.0 (-13.0) | 145.4 (+32.6) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -11.9 (-13.9) | 146.0 (+32.0) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -12.7 (-14.7) | 145.2 (+32.8) | 88% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | ETSU 69 – 67 WCU |
| Jan 14, 2026 | WCU 72 – 68 ETSU |
| Feb 12, 2025 | WCU 76 – 67 ETSU |
| Jan 23, 2025 | ETSU 85 – 58 WCU |
| Feb 17, 2024 | WCU 70 – 65 ETSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-4 | 10-3 |
| Away | 8-6 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 79.0 |
| Massey | 3.2 (#122) | -7.3 (#276) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.07 (#163) | -1.37 (#286) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#166) | -1.81 (#288) |
| RPI | 0.511 (#140) | 0.454 (#254) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 34.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 55.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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