Betting Lines
| Spread | CSUN -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Over |
| Money | CSUN -162 UCD +136 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUN +16 | 172 | Won |
| Massey | CSUN -0.4 (+15.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.3 (+6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSUN -0.1 (+15.9) | 157.0 (+15.0) | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSUN -2.2 (+13.8) | 154.6 (+17.4) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSUN -0.2 (+15.8) | 153.9 (+18.1) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CSUN -0.2 (+15.8) | 153.9 (+18.1) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 1, 2026 | UCD 89 – 80 CSUN |
| Feb 22, 2025 | CSUN 65 – 62 UCD |
| Jan 4, 2025 | CSUN 73 – 61 UCD |
| Feb 23, 2024 | UCD 66 – 65 CSUN |
| Jan 12, 2024 | UCD 95 – 75 CSUN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUN | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 11-9 |
| Home | 12-3 | 12-4 |
| Away | 7-8 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.6 | 76.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.3 | 76.0 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#222) | -0.8 (#182) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#190) | 0.17 (#152) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.40 (#200) | 0.40 (#132) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#185) | 0.500 (#177) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUN | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 30.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 29.9% |
Game Analysis
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