Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Over |
| Money | UCD -180 CSUN +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +9 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | UCD -8.0 (+1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.9 (+1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCD -5.1 (+3.9) | 158.5 (+10.5) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCD -4.4 (+4.6) | 158.4 (+10.6) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -5.9 (+3.1) | 158.2 (+10.8) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -4.3 (+4.7) | 158.6 (+10.4) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | CSUN 94 – 78 UCD |
| Feb 22, 2025 | CSUN 65 – 62 UCD |
| Jan 4, 2025 | CSUN 73 – 61 UCD |
| Feb 23, 2024 | UCD 66 – 65 CSUN |
| Jan 12, 2024 | UCD 95 – 75 CSUN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | CSUN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 12-8 |
| Home | 12-4 | 12-3 |
| Away | 6-9 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.1 | 80.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.0 | 81.3 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#165) | -3.7 (#219) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#130) | -0.01 (#174) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#112) | -0.32 (#184) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#107) | 0.495 (#184) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | CSUN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 30.4 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 29.1% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 66.1% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.2% | 28.6% |
Game Analysis
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