Betting Lines
| Spread | CSUN -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | UCD +150 CSUN -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUN +3 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | CSUN -4.7 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.1 (-17.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSUN -4.2 (+1.2) | 142.9 (-15.9) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSUN -3.1 (+0.1) | 141.5 (-14.5) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSUN -3.7 (+0.7) | 144.2 (-17.2) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSUN -3.6 (+0.6) | 146.0 (-19.0) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | CSUN 94 – 78 UCD |
| Jan 1, 2026 | UCD 89 – 80 CSUN |
| Jan 4, 2025 | CSUN 73 – 61 UCD |
| Feb 23, 2024 | UCD 66 – 65 CSUN |
| Jan 12, 2024 | UCD 95 – 75 CSUN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | CSUN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 14-6 |
| Home | 8-6 | 10-3 |
| Away | 7-10 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L7 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.2 | 79.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 74.3 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#228) | 4.2 (#103) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.18 (#160) | 1.04 (#85) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.24 (#186) | 1.15 (#95) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#134) | 0.535 (#111) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | CSUN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 35.5% |
| FT Rate | 29.3% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 76.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.6% | 35.6% |
Game Analysis
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