Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | UCD -200 CSUN +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +20 | 170 | Won |
| Massey | UCD -2.4 (+17.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.0 (+25.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCD -1.4 (+18.6) | 144.8 (+25.2) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCD -1.5 (+18.5) | 144.4 (+25.6) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -1.5 (+18.5) | 142.4 (+27.6) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -1.2 (+18.8) | 145.0 (+25.0) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | CSUN 94 – 78 UCD |
| Jan 1, 2026 | UCD 89 – 80 CSUN |
| Feb 22, 2025 | CSUN 65 – 62 UCD |
| Jan 4, 2025 | CSUN 73 – 61 UCD |
| Feb 23, 2024 | UCD 66 – 65 CSUN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | CSUN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 9-11 |
| Home | 10-6 | 9-7 |
| Away | 8-6 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 74.4 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#155) | 2.3 (#132) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.62 (#236) | 0.88 (#105) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.49 (#216) | 0.84 (#123) |
| RPI | 0.453 (#256) | 0.508 (#160) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | CSUN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 41.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 35.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 76.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.4% | 29.3% |
Game Analysis
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