Betting Lines
| Spread | UVM -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | UVM -395 UMBC +310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVM +9 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | UVM -6.1 (+2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.7 (-28.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVM -4.6 (+4.4) | 139.1 (-20.1) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVM -5.1 (+3.9) | 138.5 (-19.5) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVM -5.8 (+3.2) | 140.3 (-21.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVM -4.6 (+4.4) | 140.4 (-21.4) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | UMBC 74 – 59 UVM |
| Feb 19, 2026 | UMBC 75 – 62 UVM |
| Mar 1, 2025 | UVM 79 – 69 UMBC |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UMBC 80 – 63 UVM |
| Feb 10, 2024 | UVM 72 – 70 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVM | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 14-2 |
| Home | 13-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 8-7 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 68.5 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#205) | -5.8 (#255) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.29 (#200) | -1.10 (#265) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.35 (#195) | -1.52 (#268) |
| RPI | 0.488 (#206) | 0.441 (#281) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVM | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.9% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 76.5% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 16.7% |
Game Analysis
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