Betting Lines
| Spread | UVM -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | UVM -230 UMBC +195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +17 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | UVM -3.8 (-20.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.6 (-0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVM -3.8 (-20.8) | 141.8 (+1.2) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVM -2.3 (-19.3) | 139.2 (+3.8) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UVM -2.9 (-19.9) | 139.5 (+3.5) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVM -3.2 (-20.2) | 141.6 (+1.4) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | UMBC 74 – 59 UVM |
| Feb 19, 2026 | UMBC 75 – 62 UVM |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UVM 64 – 55 UMBC |
| Mar 1, 2025 | UVM 79 – 69 UMBC |
| Feb 10, 2024 | UVM 72 – 70 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVM | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 13-3 | 5-11 |
| Home | 13-3 | 8-9 |
| Away | 7-8 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.5 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.0 | 80.6 |
| Massey | -6.4 (#267) | -6.8 (#273) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.37 (#214) | -1.36 (#290) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.58 (#214) | -1.61 (#284) |
| RPI | 0.493 (#193) | 0.430 (#298) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVM | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 20.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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