Betting Lines
| Spread | UVM -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | UMBC +550 UVM -1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVM +2 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | UVM -9.1 (+7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.6 (-11.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVM -8.9 (+6.9) | 146.2 (-4.2) | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVM -8.9 (+6.9) | 146.1 (-4.1) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVM -9.2 (+7.2) | 144.9 (-2.9) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVM -8.5 (+6.5) | 146.6 (-4.6) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | UMBC 74 – 59 UVM |
| Feb 19, 2026 | UMBC 75 – 62 UVM |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UVM 64 – 55 UMBC |
| Mar 1, 2025 | UVM 79 – 69 UMBC |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UMBC 80 – 63 UVM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 15-1 |
| Home | 6-9 | 16-1 |
| Away | 5-12 | 10-4 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.2 | 63.8 |
| Massey | -8.6 (#305) | 3.8 (#115) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.26 (#339) | 1.11 (#92) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.57 (#333) | 1.41 (#93) |
| RPI | 0.380 (#351) | 0.566 (#76) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 21.7% |
| FT Rate | 16.8% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 76.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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