Betting Lines
| Spread | UVM -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | UMBC +280 UVM -360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVM +10 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | UVM -0.2 (-9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.9 (+5.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVM -1.5 (-8.5) | 138.8 (+9.2) | 41% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVM -1.9 (-8.1) | 140.7 (+7.3) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVM -0.8 (-9.2) | 139.3 (+8.7) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVM -0.8 (-9.2) | 139.5 (+8.5) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | UMBC 74 – 59 UVM |
| Feb 19, 2026 | UMBC 75 – 62 UVM |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UVM 64 – 55 UMBC |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UMBC 80 – 63 UVM |
| Feb 10, 2024 | UVM 72 – 70 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 13-3 |
| Home | 8-9 | 13-3 |
| Away | 5-10 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 64.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.6 | 65.0 |
| Massey | -8.3 (#299) | -4.9 (#245) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.58 (#312) | -0.24 (#190) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.68 (#290) | -0.39 (#197) |
| RPI | 0.440 (#294) | 0.525 (#131) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 30.1 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 6.4 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 19.6% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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