Betting Lines
| Spread | UVM -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | UMBC +105 UVM -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +13 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | UMBC -1.5 (+11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.4 (-8.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -0.9 (+12.1) | 139.3 (-2.3) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVM -0.5 (+13.5) | 139.0 (-2.0) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -1.0 (+12.0) | 140.7 (-3.7) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -1.0 (+12.0) | 141.3 (-4.3) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | UMBC 74 – 59 UVM |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UVM 64 – 55 UMBC |
| Mar 1, 2025 | UVM 79 – 69 UMBC |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UMBC 80 – 63 UVM |
| Feb 10, 2024 | UVM 72 – 70 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 12-4 |
| Home | 15-2 | 13-3 |
| Away | 9-6 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 68.8 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#238) | -3.4 (#220) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.85 (#245) | -0.66 (#232) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.15 (#250) | -0.71 (#221) |
| RPI | 0.473 (#234) | 0.494 (#195) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 23.4% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 77.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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