Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | UMBC -148 UVM +124 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +15 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | UMBC -4.7 (+10.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.4 (-9.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -4.8 (+10.2) | 138.5 (-5.5) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -2.9 (+12.1) | 134.6 (-1.6) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -4.8 (+10.2) | 136.9 (-3.9) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -4.9 (+10.1) | 138.5 (-5.5) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | UMBC 75 – 62 UVM |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UVM 64 – 55 UMBC |
| Mar 1, 2025 | UVM 79 – 69 UMBC |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UMBC 80 – 63 UVM |
| Feb 10, 2024 | UVM 72 – 70 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 12-4 |
| Home | 15-2 | 13-3 |
| Away | 9-6 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 68.8 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#204) | -3.9 (#226) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.40 (#215) | -0.58 (#228) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.52 (#212) | -0.69 (#228) |
| RPI | 0.506 (#158) | 0.505 (#161) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 77.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.3% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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