Betting Lines
| Spread | LIB -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | MTSU +102 LIB -122 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIB +16 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | MTSU -0.3 (-16.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.5 (+3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIB -0.0 (-16.0) | 140.8 (+5.2) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTSU -0.1 (-16.1) | 138.5 (+7.5) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTSU -0.2 (-16.2) | 139.5 (+6.5) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTSU -1.0 (-17.0) | 138.8 (+7.2) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2025 | LIB 86 – 81 MTSU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | LIB 73 – 63 MTSU |
| Mar 6, 2024 | MTSU 69 – 61 LIB |
| Feb 9, 2024 | LIB 88 – 53 MTSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTSU | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 17-3 |
| Home | 11-4 | 14-2 |
| Away | 5-8 | 11-3 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 75.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 72.2 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#131) | 5.3 (#102) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#136) | 1.71 (#61) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.27 (#144) | 1.91 (#68) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#74) | 0.590 (#42) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTSU | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 50.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 39.9% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 29.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 59.7% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 20.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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