Betting Lines
| Spread | MTSU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | MTSU -120 LIB +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIB +5 | 167 | Lost |
| Massey | LIB -0.6 (-4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.0 (+27.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIB -0.9 (-4.1) | 140.0 (+27.0) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTSU -0.3 (-5.3) | 138.6 (+28.4) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MTSU -0.5 (-5.5) | 139.7 (+27.3) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTSU -0.3 (-5.3) | 139.9 (+27.1) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | LIB 81 – 65 MTSU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | LIB 73 – 63 MTSU |
| Mar 6, 2024 | MTSU 69 – 61 LIB |
| Feb 9, 2024 | LIB 88 – 53 MTSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTSU | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-5 | 12-3 |
| Away | 8-5 | 9-2 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 65.2 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#117) | 7.0 (#80) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.25 (#80) | 1.48 (#64) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.09 (#98) | 1.92 (#65) |
| RPI | 0.579 (#49) | 0.555 (#77) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTSU | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 38.2% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 5.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 56.9% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 19.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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