He took it all too far, but boy could he play guitar. "Ziggy Stardust" - David Bowie
Conference USA · Murphy Center · March 7, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread MTSU -1.5 Away covered
O/U 140.5 Over
Money MTSU -120 / LIB +100
Model Predictions
Spread Total MTSU win
Actual LIB +5 167 Lost
Massey LIB -0.6 (-4.4)
Massey Totals 140.0 (+27.0)
Bradley-Terry 59%
Weighted B-T 46%
Efficiency Plus ML LIB -0.9 (-4.1) 140.0 (+27.0) 51%
Baseline Tuned ML MTSU -0.3 (-5.3) 138.6 (+28.4) 51%
Baseline ML MTSU -0.5 (-5.5) 139.7 (+27.3) 47%
Baseline Plus ML MTSU -0.3 (-5.3) 139.9 (+27.1) 53%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 30, 2026 LIB 8165 MTSU
Jan 4, 2025 LIB 7363 MTSU
Mar 6, 2024 MTSU 6961 LIB
Feb 9, 2024 LIB 8853 MTSU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MTSU LIB
Overall 22-12 28-7
Conference 12-6 13-5
Home 11-5 12-3
Away 8-5 9-2
Neutral 3-2 7-2
Last 5 4-1 4-1
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 75.2 73.7
Avg Pts Against 73.8 65.2
Massey 3.1 (#117) 7.0 (#80)
Bradley-Terry 1.25 (#80) 1.48 (#64)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.09 (#98) 1.92 (#65)
RPI 0.579 (#49) 0.555 (#77)
Shooting & Four Factors MTSU LIB
FG% 44.5% 47.8%
3PT% 32.1% 38.2%
REB / G 37.2 31.5
OREB / G 11.0 5.9
AST / TO 1.07 1.50
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.6% 56.9%
TOV% 16.5% 15.6%
ORB% 30.4% 19.0%
FT Rate 22.1% 20.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.5% 45.8%
Opp TOV% 16.2% 17.6%
DRB% 70.5% 72.7%
Opp FT Rate 22.3% 18.7%

Game Analysis

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