Betting Lines
| Spread | LIB -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | LIB -800 MTSU +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIB +35 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | LIB -14.2 (+20.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.0 (+13.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIB -11.3 (+23.7) | 131.8 (+9.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIB -10.8 (+24.2) | 135.1 (+5.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIB -10.9 (+24.1) | 134.5 (+6.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIB -11.4 (+23.6) | 132.9 (+8.1) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | LIB 81 – 65 MTSU |
| Mar 7, 2025 | LIB 86 – 81 MTSU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | LIB 73 – 63 MTSU |
| Mar 6, 2024 | MTSU 69 – 61 LIB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIB | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 7-9 |
| Home | 12-3 | 11-6 |
| Away | 2-8 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 64.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 3.6 (#117) | -7.3 (#292) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.49 (#129) | -1.15 (#283) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.76 (#126) | -1.19 (#277) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#133) | 0.422 (#312) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIB | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 28.0% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 0.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 45.2% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 21.9% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 17.1% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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