Betting Lines
| Spread | LIB -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | MTSU +170 LIB -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTSU +8 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | LIB -7.0 (+15.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.2 (-3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIB -5.5 (+13.5) | 134.1 (-4.1) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIB -4.9 (+12.9) | 134.5 (-4.5) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LIB -5.2 (+13.2) | 135.3 (-5.3) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIB -5.5 (+13.5) | 135.6 (-5.6) | 33% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | LIB 81 – 65 MTSU |
| Mar 7, 2025 | LIB 86 – 81 MTSU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | LIB 73 – 63 MTSU |
| Feb 9, 2024 | LIB 88 – 53 MTSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTSU | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 7-9 |
| Home | 11-6 | 12-3 |
| Away | 1-10 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.4 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 68.3 |
| Massey | -7.2 (#291) | 3.0 (#126) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.76 (#257) | 0.22 (#150) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.89 (#257) | 0.39 (#142) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#279) | 0.516 (#142) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTSU | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.8% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 17.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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