Betting Lines
| Spread | LIB -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | LIB -380 MTSU +290 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIB +10 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | LIB -9.2 (+0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.7 (-2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIB -9.7 (+0.3) | 140.4 (-4.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIB -8.5 (+1.5) | 138.0 (-2.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIB -8.6 (+1.4) | 139.0 (-3.0) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIB -8.7 (+1.3) | 139.2 (-3.2) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | LIB 81 – 65 MTSU |
| Mar 7, 2025 | LIB 86 – 81 MTSU |
| Mar 6, 2024 | MTSU 69 – 61 LIB |
| Feb 9, 2024 | LIB 88 – 53 MTSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIB | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 12-6 |
| Home | 12-3 | 11-5 |
| Away | 9-2 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 73.8 |
| Massey | 8.1 (#69) | 3.0 (#115) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.68 (#68) | 0.94 (#100) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.69 (#56) | 0.73 (#124) |
| RPI | 0.560 (#78) | 0.573 (#63) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIB | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.1% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 39.7% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 6.9 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.4% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 22.8% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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