Betting Lines
| Spread | EWU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | NAU +114 EWU -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAU +6 | 178 | Won |
| Massey | EWU -1.6 (+7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.5 (+28.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | EWU -1.5 (+7.5) | 143.9 (+34.1) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EWU -2.3 (+8.3) | 143.2 (+34.8) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | EWU -1.7 (+7.7) | 145.5 (+32.5) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EWU -1.5 (+7.5) | 144.7 (+33.3) | 40% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | EWU 88 – 57 NAU |
| Mar 9, 2025 | NAU 66 – 53 EWU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | NAU 87 – 67 EWU |
| Jan 24, 2025 | NAU 70 – 61 EWU |
| Feb 23, 2024 | NAU 78 – 71 EWU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAU | EWU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 11-7 |
| Home | 9-7 | 8-4 |
| Away | 1-13 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 77.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.6 | 79.2 |
| Massey | -9.0 (#298) | -4.2 (#231) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.82 (#321) | -1.43 (#292) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.19 (#312) | -1.64 (#280) |
| RPI | 0.388 (#346) | 0.417 (#320) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAU | EWU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 30.3 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 24.5% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.7% | 56.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 66.6% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 28.6% |
Game Analysis
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