Betting Lines
| Spread | NAU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | NAU -170 EWU +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAU +20 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | NAU -3.1 (+16.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.7 (+9.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAU -1.9 (+18.1) | 142.9 (+11.1) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAU -1.7 (+18.3) | 139.6 (+14.4) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAU -2.4 (+17.6) | 142.2 (+11.8) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAU -2.2 (+17.8) | 142.0 (+12.0) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | EWU 88 – 57 NAU |
| Jan 30, 2026 | NAU 92 – 86 EWU |
| Mar 9, 2025 | NAU 66 – 53 EWU |
| Jan 24, 2025 | NAU 70 – 61 EWU |
| Feb 23, 2024 | NAU 78 – 71 EWU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAU | EWU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 6-12 |
| Home | 10-5 | 8-6 |
| Away | 7-8 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 76.3 |
| Massey | -5.1 (#252) | -5.1 (#250) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.99 (#263) | -1.19 (#284) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.21 (#261) | -1.36 (#275) |
| RPI | 0.440 (#292) | 0.432 (#306) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAU | EWU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 30.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 66.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 29.1% |
Game Analysis
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