Betting Lines
| Spread | NAU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | NAU -155 EWU +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAU +13 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | NAU -2.3 (+10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.3 (-25.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAU -1.9 (+11.1) | 139.6 (-20.6) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAU -3.0 (+10.0) | 141.9 (-22.9) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAU -3.0 (+10.0) | 143.4 (-24.4) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAU -2.7 (+10.3) | 143.1 (-24.1) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | EWU 88 – 57 NAU |
| Jan 30, 2026 | NAU 92 – 86 EWU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | NAU 87 – 67 EWU |
| Jan 24, 2025 | NAU 70 – 61 EWU |
| Feb 23, 2024 | NAU 78 – 71 EWU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAU | EWU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 6-12 |
| Home | 10-5 | 8-6 |
| Away | 7-8 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 76.3 |
| Massey | -4.5 (#239) | -6.8 (#275) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.90 (#249) | -1.53 (#308) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.12 (#252) | -1.73 (#294) |
| RPI | 0.448 (#287) | 0.419 (#323) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAU | EWU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 29.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 29.6% |
Game Analysis
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